ENABLING CHANGE: ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN UNION CIVILIAN MISSIONS THROUGH THE LENS OF THEORY OF CHANGE

Abstract

This paper examines the implementation process of European Union (EU) civilian Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) Missions using the Theory of Change framework, focusing on resources, outputs, and impact. The research employs a qualitative methodology, drawing on empirical data from in-depth interviews, conducted in December 2024, with purposively selected European External Action Service (EEAS), Member state representatives, CSDP Missions management representatives, directly involved in the planning and execution of CSDP missions. Despite the limitations of this study, such as only partial coverage of EU missions due to the sensitivity of the topic and limited access to information, it provides valuable insights into the process of mission implementation and the challenges that influence their outputs and impact. Based on interviews with selected experts, the study identifies strategic incoherence, limited expertise and fragmented coordination efforts as key obstacles, especially in advancing digital transformation. Although short-term outputs are visible, long-term technological progress is hampered by systemic inertia and institutional limitations.

Keywords: European Union, Civilian Mission, Theory of Change, Short-term Outputs, Long-term Impact.