Building Lithuanian Macro-econometric Model: Forecast of Average Wages and Unemployment Rate
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Abstract
The importance of economic modelling maintains its positions and plays a relevant role in the analysis of behaviour of national economy due to this analysis of macroeconomic environment is extremely important. Moreover, analysis of regional or even global trends is essential to policy makers. Various types of macro-econometric models have been developed for the analysis of different economic processes and needs. The main goal of article is to create Lithuanian macro-econometric model and to provide three forecast projections (scenarios) of average wages and unemployment rate in Lithuania. Despite the limitations of the use of macroeconomic models during the crisis, it is possible to use such models in scenario analysis. This article also provides analysis of scientific literature of average wages and unemployment rates and statistical data of Lithuanian main economical indicators. The model is based on the Inforum philosophy, on the input-output accounting principles and identities, integrated bottom- up approach. Upon analysis of theoretical and practical aspects conclusions and proposals are provided.
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