Lithuanian Economy in 2011-2020: Forecast of Main Macroeconomic Parameters as a Tool to Consider Sustainable Development of Health Financing
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Abstract
The forecast of the Lithuanian economy is developed according to the national trends apparent in 2000-2010 as well as by applying the theory of convergence in the EU region. The main parameters of scrutiny are GDP, inflation, employment/unemployment, budget revenues and expenditures, public debt, public health financing. Interdependence of parameters of the forecast is tuned by using Philips curve, Ocun’s law, model of political cycle. Lithuania joining the Euro in 2015 has been used as a fixed element of the model. Uncertainty of the future has been reflected by developing pessimistic, optimistic and most likely (basic) scenarios. Midterm trends of development (not the business cycle) are the main objective of the study. The paper presents the results of the study commissioned by the Lithuanian Statutory Health Insurance Fund in 2011 (Černiauskas et al., 2012).
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