It’s proved that one of the main factors of effective activity of agrarian enterprises is the effective scenario planning, which would ensure qualitative and most complete modeling of the development options of the enterprise. A focused strategy is a prerequisite for ensuring strong market positions of the company and achieving its high financial performance in the long run. The aim of the work is to study the scenario approach as a method for managing the development of agrarian enterprises. The authors formulated the main uncertainties that have an impact on the future development of agrarian enterprises by using the scenario approach. The developed scenario is the preliminary information on the basis of which further work is performed on forecasting of the main indicators of the production activity of agrarian corporations or the development of an information project option. It enables the presentation of a complex problem, provides a transition to a formal image of the system in the form of charts, tables for conducting expert surveys and other methods of system analysis.