PROPAGANDA NARRATIVES AS AN INSTRUMENT OF HYBRID THREATS IN LITHUANIA

Abstract

This article examines propaganda as a key instrument of hybrid threats affecting Lithuania’s information security environment. Drawing upon theoretical models of propaganda and analysis of publicly available sources, the study identifies the main groups of propaganda narratives circulating in the Lithuanian information space: the delegitimisation of democratic institutions, the discrediting of NATO and Western policies, the manipulation of historical memory, and narratives related to the war in Ukraine. The findings demonstrate that these narratives function as an interconnected architecture of information influence aimed at weakening state legitimacy, societal cohesion, and national defence policies. The analysis reveals several structurally vulnerable sectors: institutional legitimacy, historical identity, societal polarisation, perceptions of national defence, and energy security. These vulnerabilities are amplified by political tensions, gaps in media literacy, and socio-economic anxieties. The article also identifies likely future propaganda trends targeting Lithuania, including narratives about an “impending war”, efforts to delegitimise NATO troop deployments, the instrumentalisation of migration, economic crisis narratives, and the reframing of historical interpretations. The study concludes that propaganda narratives in Lithuania represent a long-term, adaptive hybrid threat with significant implications for public and national security. Strengthening societal resilience, improving strategic communication, and enhancing media literacy are critical components in mitigating the impact of hostile information operations.