FORECAST TRENDS OF THE WORLD LABOR MARKET

Abstract

The article examines the forecast aspects of the world labor market in the context of the prospects of labor supply of the global economy. The demographic situation in the world as an initial component of the labor market analysis is analyzed. The problem of employment in the context of global economic transformations is considered. The hypothesis of significant strengthening in the perspective of heterogeneity and uneven development of labor markets of regions and countries is expressed and confirmed. The forecast employment trends in the global and regional context are estimated. It is concluded that despite the growing projected employment trends, the most important problem in the world labor market remains unemployment. It is substantiated that it is expedient to combine forecasts of unemployment dynamics with forecasts of employment dynamics in order to determine the future number of vacancies in the labor market. It is concluded that there are labor deformations on a global scale in qualitative and territorial terms, which in the future will lead to intensification of international migration. It has been established that both current and projected unemployment has a clear qualitative nature, which raises the issue of developing forecasts of promising supply of skilled labor at the country level. It is proved that international labor migration will play an important role in providing employment in the world economy, first of all, in the highly skilled segment of workers. It is stated that the process of substitution migration is widespread in all groups of countries - when the jobs of workers who left for developed countries are replaced by workers from countries with incomes below the average and developed countries. It is emphasized that due to the differences in existing approaches to the analysis and forecasting of the need for workers in the world economy, the development of multi-scenario forecasts based on systematic monitoring of current and future volumes of labor supply and demand becomes especially important. The development of multi-scenario forecasts will use employment forecasting models to determine the total and additional labor needs in the context of changing sectoral structure of the economy, as well as model trends of increasing or decreasing demand for educational and vocational skills as a basis for making optimal decisions.