Analysis of Causality among Tax Revenue, State Expenditure, Inflation, and Economic Growth in Indonesia between 1973 and 2019

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the causality between tax revenue, state expenditure, inflation and economic growth in Indonesia during the 1973-2019 period to provide policy advice to the Indonesian government. This country was selected as an object with consideration that its economy has grown impressively and has been able to rise from the Asian economic crisis. A brief overview of the policies developed during the research period is presented to provide insight into the policies taken by the government. The use of quantitative methods through the Vector Error Correction Model and Granger causality test was carried out to provide an in-depth analysis. The result showed a positive long-term two-way causality relationship between tax revenues and state expenditures as well as tax revenues and economic growth. This indicates that the government's efforts to implement state expenditure have succeeded in increasing tax revenues. Conversely, an increase in tax revenue allows the government to make state expenditures, both in development and other activities, to improve people’s economy, leading to increased economic growth. The government must maintain an economic policy strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic to restore the national economy by considering potential sectors that are suitable for the climate, such as the agriculture or livestock sector. The result of tests on inflation show that this variable is caused by economic growth and does not apply the other way around, but this variable is has a negative effect on tax revenue, state expenditure and economic growth so its needs to be suppressed to ensure the stable economic growth.